SOL: SHOGUNATE
Samurai space-opera ARPG on Unreal Engine 5. HG is supporting a target $3.5M position in a $12.0M pari-passu investor pool against $13.5M TPC. Target economics are first-money-out 1.0× recoupment followed by 60/40
STUDIO
CHAOS MANUFACTURING (LESZEK + RICO GRAHAM)
DEAL TYPE
PUBLISHING — TARGET 1.0× POOL RECOUPMENT, THEN 60/40 INVESTOR / DEVELOPER; NOT A TIERED-MOIC WATERFALL
HG CAPITAL
$3.5M TARGET OF $12.0M POOL (29.17%, PARI-PASSU); $0 DEPLOYED
CLASSIFICATION
TIER AA (TPC $13.5M) · CHECK WITHIN AA $2–5M BAND · FOUR-INGREDIENT 14/20 → BM 1.0
STATUS
ACTIVE — FUNDRAISE SUPPORT; NO SIGNED HG–CHAOS DEAL
DOCUMENT DATE
SEPTEMBER 6, 2026
PREPARED BY
HELLO GIANT CAPITAL · DAN BUNTING
HEADLINE METRICS
METRIC
BEAR
BASE
BULL
WEIGHTED
Lifetime units
500K
1.5M
3.5M
—
Investor pool MOIC
1.02x
2.53x
6.07x
2.66x
Investor pool XIRR
0.6%
27.7%
60.5%
19.7% E[IRR] / 29.4% IRR(E[CF])
HG proceeds (29.17%)
$3.59M
$8.84M
$21.25M
$9.30M
Weights: 30% bear / 45% base / 20% bull / 5% total loss. MOIC is identical at pool and HG level because participation is pari-passu. The first-money-out model fully recoups principal in the 1.02× bear case.
Model status — These figures supersede the May 2026 brief’s 2.69× / 19.5%. The structure is restored to first-money-out, XIRR is rebased to the $12M investor pool, and HG’s target check is revised from $5.5M to $3.5M. All waterfall values remain temporary until a term sheet is agreed; the quarantined 50/50 downside bear is 0.93×.
FOUR-INGREDIENT SCORE
AUTH
EXEC
ORIG
FANDOM
TOTAL
BM
4/5
4/5
3/5
3/5
14/20
1.00
The model’s GTM reserve is $4.6M of $13.5M TPC = 34%, inside the 25–50% band. The weakness is the plan, not the reserve: marketing strategy remains under-developed relative to the deal’s diligence depth and should be firmed alongside the future tranche wishlist gate. Per-ingredient anchors remain to be confirmed in the project deep-dive.
THESIS
The most diligenced deal in the Hello Giant slate by a wide margin — vertical slice playable, third-party market report assessed and quarantined, milestone-gated tranche schedule with explicit governance items at each release. The slice resolved the single biggest 2024 diligence flag (combat playability + scope demonstration), materially de-risking the primary underwriting concern. Remaining risks are governance-stage (combat polish, art direction, FTE ramp), not studio-stage — and the part-time/contract structure means slippage is timing cost, not proceeds cost.
KEY RISKS
Three subjective execution gaps — combat polish, visual style punch, and boss breadth. Any future tranche release should remain contingent on demonstrable progress: 2–3 additional boss battles, an art-direction review with Chaos leadership, and a combat-polish review.
FTE ramp 9 → 30 on full funding; integration friction. Any future tranche release should require an FTE plan naming specific hires versus roles still to be recruited.
Samurai sub-niche fatigue by the targeted early-2029 launch, with Ghost of Tsushima, Sekiro, Wo Long, and Rise of the Ronin already in market. This remains an originality risk under the framework’s trend-chasing warning.
Related party — HG’s part-time Head of Game Publishing is also affiliated with Chaos Manufacturing. The arm’s-length rule is in force: he does not hold HG’s publishing seat on this deal. A recusal protocol is drafted and consolidated into the fund-level conflicts disclosure (memo §7.2).
RECOMMENDATION
ACTIVE — FUNDRAISE SUPPORT toward an HG-published deal. No HG capital has been deployed and no HG–Chaos deal is signed. HG’s target structure is first-money-out 1.0× pool recoupment followed by 60/40, but terms remain unagreed; Guy is marketing 50/50.
Before an HG commitment or any future tranche release: demonstrate 2–3 additional boss battles; complete an art-direction review with Chaos leadership; confirm the FTE plan; and show combat polish progressing toward Sifu/Nioh tier. Also reconcile the August 2026 budget and define a narrow 10–15% market-rate IP-licensor participation tier, with investors pari-passu.
WHERE TO GO DEEPER
SOL_Investment_Memo.pdf — full memo; see v5 §0 for the restated deal basis
SOL_Shogunate_Financial_Model_v3.xlsx — authoritative deal model (v3.2 state)
HGF_Fund/Hello Giant Capital Cash Flow Model.xlsx — slate position (Game 04, linked values)
HELLO GIANT
Los Angeles, CA
MAY 26, 2026
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