RITUAL TIDES
Vertpaint Studios — UK
Solo first-person Silent Hill-inspired psychological horror, built by deep-art-pipeline UK co-dev studio. $2.5M GTM-only on $4M project; structurally engineered around creator-partnership-driven GTM (DAZ secured + Cory in negotiation).
STUDIO
VERTPAINT LTD. (UK CO-DEV)
TYPE
GTM-ONLY PUBLISHING DEAL
HG CAPITAL
$2.5M
STATUS
CONDITIONAL — DE-RISKED (CREATIVE LEAD + DAZ CONFIRMED)
DOCUMENT DATE
MAY 29, 2026
PREPARED BY
HELLO GIANT CAPITAL
HEADLINE METRICS
METRIC
BEAR
BASE
BULL
WEIGHTED
Lifetime units
80K
350K
1.0M
—
HG MOIC
0.48x
1.60x
3.75x
1.67x
HG XIRR
-27.6%
22.6%
77.8%
12.4%
HG proceeds
$1.20M
$3.99M
$9.38M
$4.17M
THREE-INGREDIENT BELIEF SCORE
AUTH
EXEC
ORIG
MKT
TOTAL
BM_BASE
BM_BULL
4/5
4/5
3/5
5/5
16/20
1.00
1.00
THESIS
Indie psychological horror is the most content-creator-driven genre in gaming — top creators (Markiplier, Jacksepticeye, CoryxKenshin, DAZ) collectively reach 200M+ subs. Ritual Tides is structurally engineered around that economic reality with secured DAZ partnership + Cory in negotiation. Vertpaint’s deep AAA art pipeline (Deadhaus Sonata, Contagion) substantially de-risks visual quality, the highest-leverage variable in horror after creator activation.
KEY RISKS
Bear case is loss-making (0.45x, $1.4M loss). DAZ secured floor + indie horror creator-driven dynamics. Cory deal closure is the load-bearing mitigant — pre-T2 gate.
First original IP execution risk (Vertpaint has shipped co-dev but no original IP). Pre-LOI: identify and review credentials of creative director / narrative lead; demo gate at T2 on tonal/atmospheric coherence.
Cory deal unconfirmed — bull case is conditional on closure. Active negotiation with backend incentivestructure (1-3% HG net rev OR 5-10% post-recoup profit).
RECOMMENDATION
CONDITIONAL APPROVAL — materially de-risked since v2. New public data: announced (Mar 2026 trailer, live Steam page), creative leadership resolved (veteran GTA/Red Dead team), DAZ confirmed and in-game as ‘Phineam’, Adam Nevill on script, 2026 multiplatform launch (pulled ~1yr forward). Bear cut 25%→18%; weighted MOIC 1.67x at 12.4% IRR (up from 9.4% on earlier exit). Multiple held back by the GTM tier split + still-open Cory lever. Pre-LOI now gated mainly on Cory/second-creator + demo reception, not creative-leadership unknowns.
WHERE TO GO DEEPER
RitualTides_Investment_Memo.docx — full memo
RitualTides_Financial_Model.xlsx — deal model
Hello Giant Capital/Hello Giant Capital Cash Flow Model.xlsx — slate position (Game 03)
HELLO GIANT
Los Angeles, CA
MAY 26, 2026
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